A Devious Game of Despair: Donald Trump wants a quick end to the war in Ukraine at all costs
Originally published in German in the column "Understanding America" in the newspaper "Koelner Stadtanzeiger" on March 11, 2025
Donald Trump wants an end to the war in Ukraine within the next few weeks if possible in order - as he says - to spare the lives of many young men in Ukraine and Russia. In reality, however, the US president is concerned above all with two completely different goals that have a lot to do with his own place in history and with advantages for his country.
Trump wants to go down in history as a peacemaker and - if possible - even win the Nobel Peace Prize like his Democratic predecessor Barack Obama, with whom Trump shares a deep rivalry. He is convinced that the war in Ukraine can only be ended if the West stops supplying weapons and logistical support to Ukraine. He wants to use all means to get President Zelensky to recognize the new realities created in three years of war: to cede the territories conquered by Russia - around 20 percent of Ukraine's territory, including Crimea - and to accept his country's subsequent neutrality, i.e. non-membership of NATO. Basically, Ukraine should capitulate.
Firstly, Trump is keen to show his supporters that he is sticking to his campaign promises and keeping the USA out of costly foreign conflicts. He cares little that he is playing into the hands of the Russian aggressor. Trump is only interested in an end to the war, however it can be brought about. His actions are pure appeasement politics. Although he also threatened Putin last week with further extensive sanctions if Moscow does not negotiate, he is much more cautious with him than with Zelensky. Trump has repeatedly suggested that Zelensky should resign from office and he shows understanding for the fact that Putin is currently bombing Ukraine particularly intensively in order to create better conditions for negotiations. Anyone would do that, he even explained.
In addition, Putin has exerted a strange attraction on Trump for years. Trump respects the Kremlin leader as a strong man of power who does not tolerate any “nonsense”. He does not see Putin as an aggressor and murderer of innocent people in Ukraine and elsewhere, but as a power politician who will not allow himself to be pushed around by the West. And Trump does not want to know about the geopolitical consequences in the event that Putin and his country get away with the attack on Ukraine and can even present themselves as victors.
Although the USA under Trump may well be preparing for a conflict with China, Trump does not want to admit that the sell-out of Ukraine could encourage Xi Jinping in Beijing to annex Taiwan. In China, it is expected that Trump would let Taiwan fall like Ukraine instead of getting involved in a war, especially as the world's largest chip manufacturer, the Taiwanese company TSMC, is in the process of relocating many of its most important production facilities to the USA.
Thoughts in the US media that Trump is planning on cooperating geopolitically with Putin in a major way against China (“Kissinger in reverse”) are wild speculation - not least as it would not be advantageous for Putin to be drawn into an antagonism with Beijing by the unreliable man in the White House.
Secondly, Trump's aim is to achieve major economic and financial gains for the USA by ending the war in Ukraine. As with the drastic reduction of public personnel in the USA and his aggressive tariff policy, which is intended to hit not only China hard but also America’s allies, he always has his country's financial advantage in mind. Trump is deeply convinced that even America's allies have been exploiting the United States for years.
With an end to the war in Ukraine, Trump wants to save the enormous US military aid for Ukraine. The President mentions a total sum of more than 350 billion dollars to date. This would be significantly higher than the aid provided by the Europeans, but is completely exaggerated. Washington has so far supported Ukraine with a maximum of $184 billion and much of this money has flowed into domestic arms factories that have produced weapons - tanks, drones, ammunition - for Ukraine.
By fundamentally improving relations with Putin, Trump also intends to put Russian-American economic relations on a new basis of trust and make them as lucrative as possible again. During the preliminary negotiations for a peace agreement that recently took place in Saudi Arabia, the Russian delegation enticed with the prospect of high profits for American oil companies and other US firms if they were to resume business in Russia, which is currently impossible due to the sanctions imposed by the West.
There was also talk during the talks in Riyadh about the resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream II pipeline, which was only partially destroyed by an explosion in September 2022. US investors are to invest in the pipeline and probably also repair the defective Nord Stream I pipeline and then become responsible for supplying Russian gas to Europe. This could also become a highly profitable business. However, Germany and other European countries, which would have to agree to renewed gas cooperation with Russia and also certify the pipelines, have not even been informed of the exact content of the talks.
In addition, Trump has been urging Ukraine for weeks to transfer half of the rights to the exploitation of many valuable raw materials, including the increasingly important rare earths, to the USA. In this way, he wants to be paid retrospectively for the support Washington has provided to date. The abrupt suspension of US military aid was also intended to persuade Zelensky to sign the raw materials deal, which is quite unfavorable for Ukraine on the whole. When Ukraine showed itself to be flexible, military aid was resumed. However, Trump still does not want to give a concrete guarantee of security assistance to Ukraine, once a cease fire has been signed. He argues that the mere presence of American companies to exploit the raw materials in the future will prevent Putin from attacking Ukraine.
Despite this skewed factual situation, Ukraine's military and financial situation is so desperate that its president will have no choice but to sign the raw materials agreement. In the recent US-Ukrainian talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the US also put great pressure on Kiev to finally negotiate with Russia and back down in many if not almost all respects. Will this be the outcome of the phone call between Trump and Putin which is expected to occur soon?